5 五月

Is it now the bottom? 可以抄底了吗?

The outbreak of the new coronavirus has a direct impact on Toronto’s property market.

What surprised me a lot is that many friends actually looked at this issue in reverse, saying that there are opportunities hidden in the crisis itself.  They asked me repeatedly, “Dude, help me stare at it, I want to buy at the bottom.”

Understandably, seeing a lot of rises and bidding wars from the end of last year to March this year, and many people were panicked, afraid of being thrown out of the real estate train. That’s why they want to take this opportunity rarely seen. The problem now is that if a lot of people want to buy at the bottom, it means that the property market may never collapse.

Let’s take a look at the impact of the current housing market, and then analyze the possible future trends.

First, let us have a look at the year-on-year market volume in April in GTA:

Condo Sold and House Sold

We can see that in the second-hand housing market, whether it is for houses or apartments, the transaction volume has fallen sharply. Apartments are worse, down up to 72%. Is a decline of more than 60% be within everyone’s expectations? In fact, many people think that they should have fallen more. Is it a policy that showing is stopped? Why is the transaction volume not zero?

It seems that for the most important asset in most families, when encountering such an opportunity rarely-seen for decades, some people try all methods to get it.

Does the cut in volume also mean a collapse in prices?

Let’s look at the year-on-year data of the average price of second-hand housing in most regions in April:

GTA price compare

We can see that whether it is for houses or apartments, there is a rising in prices. Are you disappointed? Whether it is true that before the house prices collapse, your mood collapsed in advance.

A smart friend said, no, Charles, the price has already gone up in early 2020. It does not make sense to compare with 2019? What if we compare numbers with March?

Let’s take a look at the data:

Condo Sold and House Sold 2020

Regardless of whether it is a villa or an apartment, the transaction volume also fell sharply, more than 60%.

What about the price? Let’s take a look at the data:

2020 mar april price change

According to the transaction data, compared with March, second-hand villas rose 6% and apartments rose 12%.

Cry for a while and we will talk about it. Where is the crash?

Are you calming down?

First of all, as I mentioned all the time, the average price can hardly explain the rise and fall of prices, and more reflects the transaction structure. If there have been more transactions in luxury houses, and the average price has gone up. If all transactions are in small units, the average price will come down.

Secondly, the above data is for all regions. It is not same for each city, the demand and supply situation in each city is different. I have such a table in hand, the data volume is huge, if you need it, you can share it for free.

Finally, house prices are resilient to the Covid-19 epidemic.  From the perspective of demand, it is true there are fewer buyers who may be wandering in the market to take chances, but those buyers in true need are still there hunting and placing orders.  Meanwhile, if you look at the supply, the impact of the epidemic has not yet shown up. As long as someone buys it, many sellers can hold on to the price. However, if the epidemic situation exceeds a certain period of time, the market will undergo tremendous changes. How to judge whether this change will occur? Just look at the following two indicators.

新冠病毒疫情来势汹涌,对多伦多的楼市也产生了正面的冲击。

让我比较意外的是,很多朋友其实反过来看这个问题,说危机中本身就藏着机会。反复跟我说,“哥们,帮我盯着点,我想抄个底。”

可以理解,去年底到今年三月的一拨上涨和抢盘,又人很多人惊慌失措,怕自己被甩出楼市快车。

现在问题是,如果很多人要抄底,说明楼市一下两下还崩不了,没准一眨眼,又上去了。

我们来看看目前房产市场遭受的影响,然后再分析一下未来可能的趋势。

先看一下大多区4月份成交量同比行情:

Condo Sold and House Sold

我们可以看出,在二手房市场,不管是别墅房还是公寓,交易量都大幅下滑。公寓更惨一些,下降72%。60%以上的下跌应该在大家意料之内吧?事实上很多人本以为会跌得更多,不是已经不让看房了吗?交易量为什么不是零呢?

看来为了家庭中这一最重要资产,面对几十年难遇的机会,有些人还是够拼的。

成交量的腰斩,是否意味中价格的崩溃呢?

我们来看一下大多地区四月份二手房平均价格同比数据:

House Price and Condo Price 2020

我们可以看出不管是别墅房还是公寓房,都呈现上涨行情。失不失望?是不是房价没崩自己心情先崩了。

聪明的朋友说,不是啊,Charles, 2020年年初价格已经涨上去了,你和2019比意义不大吧?假如和3月份比怎么样?

我们来看一下环比数据:

Condo Sold and House Sold 2020

不管是别墅还是公寓,成交量同样大幅下滑,60%以上。

价格呢?我们来看一下环比数据:

2020 mar april price change

根据二手成交数据,四月份与三月份相比,二手别墅房涨6%, 公寓涨12%。

先哭一会儿再说吧。说好的崩盘呢?

哭好了吗? 我来安慰一下。

首先,平均价格几乎不能说明价格涨跌,更多反映的是成交结构。豪宅成交多了,平均价蹭一下就上去了。如果都是小户型成交,平均价就下来了。

第二,上面的数据是大多地区的数据,如果精确到每个城市,情况也不一样。我手上有一张这样的表格,数据量很大,如果你需要,可以免费分享。

最后,房价对疫情有韧性。从疫情的影响来看,目前对供应和需求都有影响,从需求角度,市场上可能打酱油的买家少了,很多刚需买家其实并没歇着该看房的看房,该下单的还在在下单;而从供应方面,疫情的影响目前尚未显现,只要有人买,很多卖家可以硬撑着不降价。但是,如果疫情超过一定时间,市场就会出现巨大的变化。如何判断这个变化是否会出现?只要看以下两个指标。

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